This weekend begins a hectic month for the World Rally Championship, with three tarmac rallies in the course of three weeks. With a tight race for the championship, this should make things really interesting, as the factory teams won’t have time to make little (and big) tweaks to their cars’ setups based on the previous rallies. Many of the drivers aren’t happy with the schedule, as they get about one day’s rest between the races.
San Remo is held in the mountains of Italy, near the coast, quite close to the same roads used for the Rallye Monte Carlo. It’s a classic tarmac event, with twisty old asphalt roads, and potential for very changeable weather. The teams should expect a bit of rain, and due to the nature of the roads, the course should stay wet for some time. It’s also an exciting rally, with the same feel as Monte Carlo and Corsica, with roads cut into the mountainsides, meaning dire consquences for a mistake. This will be final year for San Remo, at least for a time, as it will likely be replaced by a loose surface event in next year’s championship (Sardinia).
First, a quick review of the championship standings. Richard Burns holds first place by seven points over Carlos Sainz and Petter Solberg. Sebastien Loeb is another three points adrift of Sainz and Solberg, and Marcus Gronholm is another seven points behind Loeb. Though he’s ten points behind Burns, Loeb is going to be the marked man this month since he’s a tarmac specialist (though it’s hard to label him as such since his result last month in Australia), and he can win any or all of these events. Sainz can win on tarmac as well, but I think he’ll be looking to not lose any ground to the leaders, rather than use San Remo (or any of the tarmac rallies) to grasp the lead. Burns and Solberg have also shown quickness on the sealed surfaces, though I expect measured drives from both of them, as they’ll be looking to finish in the points unless they feel they can really challenge for a rally win. Of course, the favorite for all of these events is Gilles Panizzi. He’s far enough behind in the overall standings that he can’t sweep into the lead even if he wins all three events, but he can certainly upset someone’s title hopes.
Anyway, on to the teams….
Subaru
Petter Solberg has an excellent shot at winner the driver’s championship, and to do so, he really just needs to score good points in the next three rallies. He’ll be a bit happier if the weather goes south, as the Impreza (and especially the Pirelli tyres) perform better in the wet. But I expect a measured, mature drive from Solberg this weekend, and he’ll only push if he sees a chance to gain more points. He’s done well on sealed surface events in the past, so while he can’t be tipped as a favorite this weekend, he’ll be gunning for a spot on the podium. Tommi Makinen seemed re-energized in Australia after the announcement of his retirement at season’s end, so expect him to push the pace a bit this weekend. A spot in the top six isn’t out of the question.
Ford
The Focus has been the quickest car in the championship thus far, and there’s talk in the media circles of Markko Martin stealing one of the next three events from the tarmac specialists. It’s not out of the question, but Martin still lacks the experience on sealed surfaces to truly compete. He will be scrapping for a spot on the podium however, if all goes well. Francois Duval will be looking to finish, and perhaps find his way into the top ten. If Duval doesn’t do as well as the team would like, Subaru will cement its third place in the manufacturer’s championship.
Peugeot
First, Gilles Panizzi is the man to beat, regardless of his performance in Germany and Monte Carlo. He owned these rallies last year, and he can do it again this year. What’s really of interest is how the rest of the team performs. Richard Burns is in control of the championship lead at the moment, and he’ll be looking to stay there with a solid, consistent drive. Even if Loeb wins all three rallies, if Burns can stay on the podium, his championship chances look quite good. But Burns has mixed results on tarmac, and he will have to finish in the points to maintain his chances. Marcus Gronholm has seemingly given up on defending his title this year, so it will be interesting to see if Gronholm puts forth the effort this weekend. If he’s not nipping at a podium spot by the end of day Saturday, I see a rash of retirements in his future. Gronholm has never won a sealed surface event, and he’s quite capable of doing so, but I don’t think it will be this weekend.
Citroen
What a spot Citroen is in — two potential championship winners in Seb Loeb and Carlos Sainz. And they’ll be fighting with Peugeot for the make’s championship as well. Quite a first year in the WRC. Loeb is the obvious challenger to Panizzi tarmac dominance, and if he drives well, he puts himself in a fantastic position for the championship. While Loeb lacks the experience on these events (since he’s only been driving in the WRC for a few years on a limited schedule), he’s quick, and the Xsara is sealed surface machine. This rally will come down to Loeb and Panizzi. Sainz needs a solid drive to maintain his spot in the championship. He’s won here in the past, but look for King Carlos to simply maintain a steady pace and not drop many points to Burns.
Colin McRae is in an interesting position. He’s without a factory drive for next season, and it’s doubtful he’ll find one. The media has speculated that perhaps McRae and his brother Alister (displaced at Mitsubishi by Panizzi) may start a privateer team for next season. So, does McRae go all out for the remainder of the season and exit in a blaze of glory? More and likely, he’ll be scraping for points in the tarmac rallies, since he just recently got comfortable in the Xsara on gravel.
Skoda
This is a critical month for the Czech outfit’s new car. It will be hard to make improvements from rally to rally, so don’t expect too much from the Fabia. But, Didier Auriol is a quick tarmac driver, and if the car is at all up to the task, he will set top ten stage times, and potentially fight for manufacturer’s points.
Hyundai
Unfortunately, due to a contract dispute with their racing unit, the team will not compete in San Remo.
My Top Six
1. Sebastien Loeb
2. Gilles Panizzi
3. Petter Solberg
4. Marcus Gronholm
5. Richard Burns
6. Markko Martin
Posted on 1 October 2003