Heading into the first rest day of the Tour, Lance Armstrong sits in third place, just over two minutes behind CSC’s Jens Voight. The Discovery team allowed Voight and Christophe Moreau to break from the peleton on Sunday, both slipped ahead of Armstrong in the GC. This was not unexpected — Armstrong and the rest of his team had grown weary of defending the maillot jaune, and Armstrong said he was happy to have it off his back heading into the meat of the race in the Alps. Neither Voight or Moreau are considered real contenders in the GC, and Voight will likely only have the jersey for the length of Tueday’s stage.

But, that’s not why Armstrong might not defend his title.

Rewind to Saturday’s stage, and relatively innocuous stage with a handful of Category 2 and 3 climbs. After pushing the pace for most the day, the Discovery team didn’t have enough gas to stay with Armstrong on the final, long climb, and T-Mobile took advantage of Armstrong’s isolation. Alexandre Vinokourov attempted to break from the yellow jersey group several times, requiring Armstrong himself to reel the Kaz rider back to the pack. This tactic allowed another T-Mobile rider, Andreas Kloden, to take advantage of Armstrong’s isolation and ride clear of the group. Kloden lost the stage by a whisker (literally), but T-Mobile made quite a statement.

T-Mobile is unique among the teams at this year’s TdF in that they have three riders capable of a podium finish: Kloden, Vinokourov, and Jan Ullrich. While Ullrich is considered the team leader (and the one tapped to challenge Armstrong), his teammates are capable of ending Armstrong’s reign. As I’ve mentioned before, T-Mobile has not always made the best decisions in their handling of their quiver of stars. If the team decides that any one of the trio should win the Tour, Armstrong will likely defend his title. But, imagine if Vino, Kloden, and Ullrich decide their goal, collectively, is to unseat Armstrong? Since they are currently bunched together in the GC, Discovery would have to mark any of them. Why not mimic Saturday’s strategy of sending Vino away multiple times, wearing down Armstrong and whoever else Discovery sends to bring them back?

Of course, this requires that Vino, Kloden, and Ullrich be willing to give up personal glory for the good of the team. Ullrich, tired of his string of second place finishes, wants to beat Armstrong in the Texan’s final tour. Vino and Kloden are willing to be Ullrich’s lieutenants at the moment, but should the German falter in the Alps, both would like to be free to attack. But then, which one? Both Kloden and Vino have stood on the podium in Paris. Both have ridden well thus far? Can T-Mobile get it together?

Posted on 11 July 2005