It was understood that today’s stage marked the real beginning of the Tour de France, as the race enters the French Alps. Most of the contenders knew today’s mountaintop finish would sort things out in the GC, and sort them it did.

I won’t rehash the stage, but on the final, Category 1 climb, Lance Armstrong and the rest of the Discovery team flexed their muscles and potentially ended the race just as it was beginning. Armstrong had five riders with him on the lower sections of the climb, setting a rather brisk pace that quickly dropped Alexandre Vinokourov, and forced his T-Mobile teammates Jan Ullrich and Andreas Kloden to suffer a bit more than expected. As the climb wore on, rider after rider dropped from Armstrong’s group, including favorites Ivan Basso and Roberto Heras. Soon enough, T-Mobile lost touch with group, with Ullrich and Kloden dropping off the back. Even fellow Americans Floyd Landis and Levi Leipheimer couldn’t match the pace set by Armstrong and Alejandro Valverde. In the end, Valverde took the stage win (with Armstrong’s blessing), and Basso and Leipheimer managed to limit their losses, finishing roughly one minute behind Armstrong.

Surveying the damage, the only rider within spitting distance of Armstrong in the GC is Michael Rasmussen (who currently holds the polka dot jersey as best climber), who limited his losses on today’s stage. The Dutch rider sits 38 seconds behind Armstrong. Ivan Basso helped his cause, though he probably can’t be considered a contender at this point, and holds third, 2:20 behind Armstrong. T-Mobile absolutely self-destructed today, with Kloden and Ullrich over four minutes off the pace, and Vino even further back. So much for someone in pink standing on the podium in Paris. Floyd Landis, another ex-Armstrong teammate who was expected to be a factor this year is currently a non-factor, loses several minutes to Armstrong on the upper reaches of the climb. Landis currently sits tenth in the GC, over four minutes back.

The Tour is now, officially, Armstrong’s to lose. Rasmussen is close, but even if he manages to stay with Armstrong through the Alps, there’s little chance he could keep Armstrong within reach during the final time trial. What is noteworthy about Armstrong’s performance today is that he never had to really spring an attack — he simply set a pace no one besides Valverde could match. You get the sense the Texan held back today, and could have attacked harder if necessary.

Posted on 12 July 2005