The factory teams will look like this:

Subaru
Petter Solberg
Chris Atkinson
Stephane Sarrazin

Ford
Marcus Gronholm
Mikko Hirvonen

Two privateer squads have announced their rosters for the season:

Kronos Total Citroen
Sebastien Loeb
Xavier Pons
Dani Sordo

Red Bull Skoda
Gilles Panizzi
Andreas Aigner
Mattias Ekstrom

The Kronos squad will have many of the factory Citroen team’s support crew, so don’t discount Loeb’s chances to repeat as champion because he is not on a factory team.

The Mitsubishi squad, Harri Rovanpera and Gigi Galli, will be driving privateer Lancers for Monte Carlo and Sweden, and it is likely both will compete most every round of the championship. Former Citroen driver Francois Duval will drive a First Motorsport Skoda Fabia in Monte Carlo, but neither the team nor Duval have announced plans for the remainder of the season.

Former Peugeot ace Markko Martin was left without a drive for 2006 and will instead run a team in his native Estonian national series. Martin’s situation was partly his own choosing, after the death of co-driver Michael Park in Great Britain last season.

While Loeb will compete for the driver’s crown, it’s unlikely the rest of the Kronos team can put the team in contention for the make’s crown. The manufacturer’s championship will come down to the two factory teams, and Ford, with its more experienced drivers, should be the favorite to win. If Atkinson can have a consistent year, Subaru can challenge, but his inexperience will likely hold him back.

Another rule change for the upcoming season is that all cars are required to use passive differentials rather than active. The FIA instituted this to lower the overall cost of running a car in the championship. This means that every team will be running a 2006 spec car at the Monte, since all 2005 factory cars would be excluded due to their active differentials.

So, now, crystal ball time. The driver’s championship will come down to Loeb and Solberg. Yes, Gronholm is still quick, but he’s been behind the wheel of a Peugeot for seven years, so the switch to Ford will hinder his championship chances this season. That said, I think Ford has the best chance to win the make’s championship, as Gronholm and Hirvonen should be in the points nearly every rally. Solberg’s chances hinge on the Impreza–it has been fast enough to beat Loeb in the past, but will the 2006 spec car be able to outpace the Xsara? Loeb will not likely dominate as he did last season, but he should be consistent enough to take the crown for the third year running.

Top 3 Drivers
1. Sebastien Loeb
2. Petter Solberg
3. Marcus Gronholm

Top 3 Teams
1. Ford
2. Subaru
3. Kronos Total Citroen

Cyprus produced one rather shocking change — Francois Duval’s fate with Citroen. Duval was positioned for a points score in Cyprus, and with Solberg and Stohl ahead, he would score more manufacturer’s points for Citroen (privateers cannot score points in the manufacturer’s championship). Duval, however, had a huge off on SS11, ending his rally. This was the third shunt and retirement for Duval this season, and Citroen was clearly not pleased with the youth’s progress. Even before Loeb pulled on to the finishing ramp in Cyprus, there were questions as to whether or not Duval would stay with the team. With the Rally Turkey only a few weeks away, Citroen had to nominate its points scoring team by 6:00pm yesterday. The final word? Carlos Sainz would come out of retirement to drive the second works Xsara for Citroen in Turkey. Management would not comment further on Duval’s status with the team, or even if the Belgian would drive a third works Xsara in Turkey. Further complicating matters, Duval split with co-driver, Stephane Prevot, after their shunt in Cyprus, leaving Duval precious little time to gel with a new navigator.

Unsurprisingly, Sebastien Loeb leads the event after the first leg, but every factory team has suffered significant problems. First, Peugeot’s Marcus Gronholm, who expected to compete for victory this weekend, retired during the very first stage. Loeb’s teammate Francois Duval had throttle problems, leading to several time penalties. Mitsubishi’s Gilles Panizzi suffered gearbox problems, dropping him well down the timesheets. Petter Solberg, who was the only driver with Loeb in his sights, suffered turbo problems, prompting his retirement prior to the leg’s final stage. Thanks these problems, the current leaderboard is peppered with privateers, with Manfred Stohl holding second place, and Henning Solberg in third. Peugot’s Markko Martin is fourth, with Ford privateer Antony Warmbold within striking distance in fifth.

Solberg will attempt to restart the rally on leg two, suffering a five minute time penalty. With the leaderboard as it is, however, Solberg should have no problems pulling into the points, and perhaps even fighting for a podium place, which is absolutely critical for his title chances. Gronholm, however, will not restart, as the damage to his 307 was deemed terminal. Loeb will also have two challenging days ahead of him. He will be walking the fine line between not pushing enough and potentially losing focus and pushing too hard and suffering a fate similiar to his rivals.

Mitsubishi also continued their good form in Mexico, with Harri Rovanpera finishing in fifth and Gilles Panizzi in eighth. While neither were in the hunt for more points, they were the only team besides Peugeot to get both cars to the finish ramp, leaving the Japanese marquee tied with Ford for second place in the manufacturer’s championship. This was the first rally for the team to test new active differentials on the Lancers, and both Rovanpera and Panizzi said more work would have to be done, leaving the team quite optimistic for their chances on the run of five gravel events following Mexico.

Ford’s Toni Gardemeister could only manage sixth place on his first Mexican event, and though the Finn lost the overall championship lead to Solberg, he is still in the thick of the battle. Ford privateer Antony Warmbold took seventh, furthering his cause of getting a full factory drive in the very near future. Warmbold has been a consistent top 12 finisher over the past two seasons, so expect his services to be in demand by the major marquees after the season.

Other notes from the rally:

Subaru’s newest recruit, Chris Atkinson nearly stormed into the points in his second WRC event, holding as high as fifth place on Leg 1, but damage to the suspension on his Impreza cut short Leg 2, and a drop in oil pressure on Leg 3 finally forced him out of the rally in an attempt to preserve the engine (WRC rules mandate engines must survive two events before overhaul — this is a cost-cutting measure). Subaru management is quite pleased with Atkinson’s progress however, and with the series of gravel events on the schedule, he shoud find himself in the points very soon.

Skoda could do no better than a ninth place for Armin Schwarz. The team introduced the 2005 spec Fabia in Mexico. Jani Passonen did have problems with both his car’s gearbox and a cow, and could do no better than 13th. Both drivers did say, however, that the new Fabia faired well on the rough roads.

The championship travels across the globe in April for Rallye New Zealand.

Biggest surprises? Mitsubishi’s pace. Gigi Galli was in a hunt for a podium place until a few mishaps at the end of leg two (and he later admitted when he was setting scratch times he wasn’t driving flat out) and Rovanpera finished fourth, setting the scratch time on the final stage. This is the second double manufacturer’s points haul for the Japanese marque in as many rallies, so the team’s design to run a limited programme last season seems to have paid off. Also, Toni Gardemeister continues to impress. Though he would have finished only fifth had Loeb and Gronholm not retired, the Finn is showing speed and skill behind the wheel of the Focus. And the biggest disappointment (besides, of course, the retirements of Loeb and Gronholm)? Citroen’s Francois Duval. Duval never found any pace this weekend, and an off damaged his car, dropping over two minutes in a single stage.

The championship heads to Mexico next for the year’s first proper gravel rally. Given the speed shown by a variety of drivers so far this season, it should be a close fight.

Thanks to that mishap, Ford’s Toni Gardemeister took second place (his best result ever) and Mitsubishi’s Gilles Panizzi took third. Thanks to Harri Rovanpera clawing back into the points (remember, the Finn was Peugeot’s gravel expert for three years and had not rallied on tarmac in two), Mitsubishi saw their best points haul since Tommi Makinen led the team in 2001. Markko Martin slipped into fourth place in his first event for Peugeot, despite finishing over five minutes behind Loeb. Manfred Stohl was the only privateer to slip into the points, and Ford’s Roman Kresta rounded out the points for a decent start to the Blue Oval campaign.

The only team that walked away from Monte Carlo empty handed was Subaru. Both Solberg and Stephane Sarrazin retired, and Solberg’s off came at a time when he was challenging Gardemeister for second place and setting scratch times in the process. Skoda has a less than satisfying rally as well, with Armin Schwarz retiring and Alex Bengue finishing just outside the points.

There are three variables in the team’s success this year:

1. The car. The 307 showed promise during the latter part of the 2004 season. Can the team squeeze more performance from the car? Have they worked out the gremlins that haunted it in 2003 and 2004?

2. The team. PSA (Peugeot’s parent company) has announced that it would pull both Peugeot and Citroen from the WRC after 2005. The management will not be interested in making long-term commitments to the 307.

3. Markko Martin. Richard Burns never felt at in the 206, and his results reflected that. Martin has toed the party line after his first round of testing, but only competition time will tell if Martin can come to grips with the car.

Even if Peugeot can’t find the speed to win rallies, they shouldn’t have much trouble winning the manufacturer’s title. Citroen lost Carlos Sainz to retirement, and as fast as Francois Duval can be, he’s also inconsistent enough to hurt Citroen’s chances for a repeat. As long as the 307 holds up reasonably well, Gronholm or Martin should be in the top 5 in nearly every event. If the team has worked the gremlins out of the car, well, Martin or Gronholm should be in the hunt for a win on nearly every rally.