We are nearly two weeks into the Tour de France. I suppose I didn’t write my usual pre-race post, but that’s a good thing, given that my pre-race favorites for the general classification and other jerseys are, for the most part, a complete bust (the lone shining star is Alberto Contador in the white jersey of the best young rider, but then again, who didn’t pick the Discovery rider for this jersey?). A rather unfortunate string of events for the Astana team have pushed favorite Alexandre Vinokourov down the GC and left co-captain Andreas Kloden with a fractured tail bone. Kloden remains in the top ten, but we’ll see how long that lasts. My other pre-race favorite, Levi Leipheimer, punted during the prologue (never a good sign for someone who is considered to be a good chrono rider), and while he’s managed to hang around the top ten, I suspect he’ll have at least one more bad day.

In a moment of sheer stupidity, I penciled in Stuart O’Grady as the winner of the green jersey for best sprinter. I’d like to think I simple got a few Aussies confused (they do all look alike, right?) and should have picked Robbie McEwen. Of course, McEwen crashed out in week one, and O’Grady wrapped himself around a utility pole and Tom Boonen, who I really wanted to pick, is in the lead (though he missed a golden opportunity to put the contest away yesterday when he nearly went down in the final sprint). I picked Christophe Moreau for the polka dot jersey of the best climber, but the Dauphine Libere winner was dropped on the transitional stage yesterday and is now nothing more than an also-ran. He could certainly try to take some points in the Pyrennes, but given that he was dropped again today, I don’t hold much hope.

Back to the general classification.

The Danish chicken, Michael Rasmussen is currently in the yellow (and polka dot) jersey with what seems to be a healthy two and half minute lead over Alejandro Valverde. This, however, should be taken with a grain of salt, given that there are two time trials between now and Paris, and it’s quite possible that Rasmussen is the worst time trial rider in the Tour. He lost over twelve minutes in the chrono races in last year’s edition, so things don’t look good. I do, expect, however, that he will keep the polka dot jersey, though Yaroslov Popovych could challenge. Valverde, if he can get some support in the mountains, could end up in yellow, and a podium place is his for the taking. Cadel Evans and Carlos Sastre could also become threats, though team support could be sparse. Leipheimer is a wild card–he has the team, especially in Contador and Popovych, to break open the race in the Pyrennes (Popo, remember, was a key mountain goat for Lance Armstrong), and he can be a strong chrono rider as well. But as I said, he may also blow up spectacularly at some point.

So, then, how about my mid-race picks? Well, let’s play the role of the optimist.

General Classification
1. Levi Leipheimer
2. Cadel Evans
3. Alejandro Valverde

Green Jersey
Tom Boonen

Polka Dot
Michael Rasmussen

White
Alberto Contador

Posted on 20 July 2007