The World Rally Championship heads to the other side of the world this weekend for the Rally Australia. Another popular rally with the drivers, Australia features narrow, tree-lined roads covered with ball bearing-like gravel that makes running early a distinct disadvantage. The rally happens a bit earlier this season (during the Australian winter rather than spring), so the roads could be a bit wetter than usual, which could negate the disadvantage of running first.

Much has happened since Finland as far as how the top tier teams will look for next season. Richard Burns has signed with Subaru (again), and he hopes to end his time at Peugeot with a driver’s championship. The strangest bit of news from the Peugeot camp is the signing of Harri Rovanpera as the second driver for next year. Rovanpera has never had a full factory drive with Peugeot, but he’s won a few rallies, making him impossible to keep as a third driver. But Peugeot decided not wait to see what Colin McRae or Carlos Sainz would be doing next season and signed Rovanpera. To me, this sounds like Marcus Gronholm doesn’t like sharing the team with another championship contender (like Burns), so perhaps he demanded that Peugeot sign Rovanpera, a driver who can be counted on for manufacturers points, but who won’t challenge for the driver’s championship. Peugeot will be Gronholm’s team next year.

Here’s the team-by-team breakdown for the event:

Peugeot
Gronholm has won the last three rallies in Australia, and he’ll be gunning for another this year. This could be his last chance to take a bit out of Richard Burns’ lead in the driver’s championship, as three tarmac rallies follow. Burns will be pushing as well, trying to extend his lead, though he’ll be hampered by starting first on Friday, sweeping the road for the rest of the field. I expect that one of them won’t make it to the end of rally — the stakes are high, and they’ll both be pushing.

Subaru
Little known fact: Petter Solberg has been the hottest driver since the spring. He’s scored 25 points since Greece, better than Burns, Gronholm, and Markko Martin. If he drives well here, he could be in the hunt for the championship by the time the Rally GB rolls around in November. I expect Solberg with give another measured, quick drive for Subaru, and he should compete for at least a spot on the podium. Tommi Makinen is hanging up his helmet at the end of the season, but he’ll be looking go out on a positive note. The Impreza hasn’t been kind to Tommi in his two years with Subaru, but when it is, Tommi is still as quick as everyone else. If all goes well, Makinen should compete for a top 5 finish.

Ford
The Focus has been the fastest car in the championship since the spring. Expect that trend to continue. Markko Martin, the second best driver since Greece (with 24 points) should be a force in Australia, even with his limited experience with the event. Francois Duval’s only goal is to finish the rally. After breaking team orders, taking a few risks in Finland, and crashing out, Duval has been in hot water with Ford management. He’s got to get his Focus to finishing ramp on Sunday, or else he may be looking for a new drive next year.

Citroen
Colin McRae and Carlos Sainz are fighting for the second Xsara for next season. Who will it be? McRae needs a good result, just to spark interest for next season. Sainz should be ready to pick up the pieces should Gronholm or Burns falter this weekend, and improve his standing in the championship. Seb Loeb should be quick as well, and Citroen should take the lead in the manufacturer’s championship.

Skoda
This rally was almost a wash for Skoda — Didier Auriol had shoulder surgery, and Toni Gardenmeister was injured in a hockey (?) accident. But the good news both drivers will be fit to start the rally. It’s critical that at least one of the new Fabias reach the finish ramp, just for the experience. I do expect the Fabia to set at least one top ten stage time though, even if both cars retire.

Hyundai
Freddy Loix got some good news this month, signing with Peugeot to drive their third car next season. The Accent has suffered from a lack of testing this season, and Loix and Armin Schwarz have struggled. I’d expect both cars to finish, and perhaps Loix could finish in the manufacturers points.

My Picks
1. Markko Martin
2. Petter Solberg
3. Richard Burns
4. Carlos Sainz
5. Tommi Makinen

Posted on 2 September 2003