The Rally Great Britain begins tomorrow, and the driver’s championship will be decided on the muddy forest roads in Wales. Carlos Sainz and Sebastien Loeb are tied atop the points table, and Petter Solberg is only a point behind. If any one of the three of them win the rally, the championship will be theirs. Fourth place driver Richard Burns will not be contesting the event, however — he withdrew with an undisclosed health problem (Burns was in the hospital earlier this week). A disappointing end to the season for Burnsie — he’s been atop the points table all season, and now he can’t fight for the championship.
I’ll depart from my typical team-by-team preview, and focus mostly on the front runners and a few of the also-rans…..
Solberg has already said he won’t go maximum attack from the start (which has never been his strategy). Typically, Petter gets quicker as Sunday approaches, and I’m sure, especially with teammate Tommi Makinen’s advice, he’ll give a measured drive through Saturday just to see what his opponents do. Solberg has the best shot at winning this rally, though. He won here last year, and the Pirelli-shod Subaru Impreza has always been very quick in Wales. All told, it’s Solberg’s championship to lose.
Expect Sebastien Loeb to go flat out from the start. While he’s generally considered a tarmac specialist, Loeb has been quick on gravel, and his Xsara has proven to be the most reliable car in the championship this year. Loeb will be the underdog going into the weekend, and while I think he’ll be quick, I don’t think he can beat Sainz and Solberg to take the title. Even if Loeb doesn’t finish the event, it’s been quite a year for the young Frenchman, and he’ll be a force next season.
Carlos Sainz has experience on his side. He’s been quick when he needed to be this year, but can he match up with Solberg? Sainz has already said his success or failure is going to be up to what Solberg does. While that’s a bit of a psychological tactic on Sainz’s part, he is right — Sainz needs to keep himself in the rally, ready to take over if Solberg falters.
On to the also-rans….
Markko Martin will be gunning to win this event (he took second last year), and his main challenge will be whether or not the Focus can stay together. Martin has no reason to do anything but go flat out since he’s got no chance at the championship. If his car stays together, Martin will be able to challenge for the rally win, and I’d guess that whichever of the contenders are closest to him will allow him to take it — no need to jeopardize the championship for the rally.
Colin McRae would like to leave on a high note, especially since he may not return to the WRC. I don’t know that McRae can challenge for the win, though, even with his experience in Wales, but he could make things interesting for the championship race.
Marcus Gronholm would like to end this disappointing season on a high note, and the Finn has won in Wales before. Of course, that happened when the 206 was still the car to beat. Times have changed, and Gronholm will have push quite hard just to get on the podium, especially if the title contenders are all driving well.
Tommi Makinen would also like to leave the WRC on a high note. Makinen probably doesn’t have a chance to win the rally, but if the conditions are favorable for the Impreza (which they will be), he’ll have a shot at a high points score, and he could do his part to insure that Solberg wins the title. If Solberg is crowned champion, he’d be wise to heap praise on Makinen — I believe that Solberg’s rapid progress over the past two seasons is due to having such a fine driver as a teammate.
Anyone else? I think that unless two of the challengers retire, the top of the results table will be crowded with the contenders. Perhaps Markko Martin could sneak on the podium, but that will take a solid drive and a reliable car. But…I am dallying with the idea of giving the win to Martin — he can be quick enough, and the contenders won’t pursue him….
My Top Five
1. Petter Solberg
2. Markko Martin
3. Carlos Sainz
4. Marcus Gronholm
5. Sebastien Loeb
Do I really think Solberg will fight tooth and nail with Martin? No. I think Solberg will pick up that much speed by Sunday that he’ll win without driving flat-out (like when he broke his throttle in Finland).
Other bits of rally news….
Skoda will not take part in the complete WRC season next year. They will not join the manufacturer’s championship, but they will run a limited programme, including all the European events. This is said news, especially given the development of the Fabia. With Ford also contemplating axing their team, it could be a bit of a disappointing season next year.
Freddy Loix will get the chance to finish this season with Peugeot, after budget disputes caused his Hyundai team to fold. The FIA has given Loix permission to test and drive Richard Burns’ 206 during the Rally GB.
Some good news for the championship — Mitsubishi is set to go all out next year in the championship, and they hope that the latest version of the successful Lancer will be competitive from the start. With Gilles Panizzi leading the team, I expect they could be a spoiler in the championship.
Posted on 6 November 2003