History is often difficult to discern when it is happening. When you’re living what students will read about in textbooks in fifty years, it is really hard to see the picture the way historians can see it, with the facts laid out in a tidy outline on paper. Certain things are hard to miss (9/11 and its aftermath), but other shifts are so subtle when you’re living through them.

I linked to this article at Reason Online last week because I thought it was an interesting observation — the political parties seem to be switching sides, with the Republicans pushing through a massive Medicare expansion, and typically traditional big government Democratics, like Ted Kennedy, opposed it vociferously. Then today I read an editorial in the dead tree edition of the Pittsburgh Tribune Review that laid out the argument that neo-conservative has gone the way of the Great Society democrat. Government spending under GW Bush has risen over 20% (and this cannot be attributed to the war on terrorism, the government itself has expanded (just look at the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, and education, under the No Child Behind program, has become so intertwined with the Federal government the Democrats must be jealous.

But these little things go unnoticed, even by people who pay attention to them. I know conservatives who support the programs listed above, and believe that Bush and the current neo-con administration are doing the right thing. Yet don’t see the big picture. And I know liberals who don’t support the massive expansion of Medicare. What are people missing?

First, politics can no longer be associated with political science, at least in the traditional sense. Politics more closely resembles statistics than a practical branch of philosophy. It’s all about what people want, and what you can tell them so they will vote you into power. Need proof? Look no further than GW Bush’s claims during his election campaign that the U.S. would not be a nation builder. What are we doing now? Building democracies in Iraq and Afghanistan. Another pledge? Smaller government. We’ve covered that already.

The shift started under Clinton, who was notoriously addicted to polls and poll numbers. It was all about what people thought, and what they liked. And he played it to perfection. There he was, a Democrat, in the Rose Garden signing the death certificate for welfare as we know it. Why? Because his voters liked the idea. And why is Bush doing what he’s doing? Poll numbers. It’s all about staying in office.

So, pay attention to the news. History is being written right before your eyes.

Posted on 7 December 2003