In six days, the 2004 season begins in Monte Carlo. I’ll wrap my season preview and Monte preview into a single entry, just for convenience sake.

This is Sebastien Loeb’s championship to lose. He made a few uncharacteristic mistakes on his favored surface (tarmac), missing out on big points in Germany and France. Don’t expect that to happen again. Hopefully Loeb has learned from Richard Burns’ example — that is, you don’t need to win every rally to contest the championship. Loeb had a few retirements pushing the boat out a bit too far — had he just finished in the points, he would have easily won the championship. Loeb has a fast, reliable car (the Citroen Xsara), so even though his car doesn’t have the number 1 placard, he’s the man to beat.

Petter Solberg had a combination of skill and luck to win the championship last season. Poor weather conditions during the fall tarmac rounds allowed Solberg and the notoroiously underperforming Impreza to steal a win and a load of championship points. Solberg learned a lot of from his ex-teammate Tommi Makinen, and expect him to put that knowledge to good use this year. If Solberg is to repeat as champion, he’s got to maximize his gravel wins and take advantage of the fact that Loeb loses a tarmac event this year (the Rally Italy has been moved from the sealed surfaces of the mainland to the gravel roads of Sardina). Can Solberg repeat? It’s possible, but it will an uphill fight, unless the Subaru engineers really re-tooled the Impreza’s engine this winter.

Markko Martin is the darkhorse. The Focus is incredibly quick, but it suffered from reliability issues last season. If the Ford M Sport engineers ironed out the bugs, Martin has a shot, but he’s still not my favorite to win the championship. And what about Marcus Gronholm and Carlos Sainz? Sainz kept himself in contention last season by taking Richard Burns’ route — not many rally wins, but loads of points. His retirement from Rally GB nixed his hopes, but he was in the running until then. Gronholm had a terrible season last year, after owning the circuit in 2002. I’m not sure Gronholm’s fortunes will change this year with the debut of the Peugeot 307, which will no doubt be plagued by reliability issues.

My Top 5
1. Sebastien Loeb
2. Petter Solberg
3. Carlos Sainz
4. Markko Martin
5. Marcus Gronholm

Monte Carlo
Citroen absolutely owned this event last season, with Sainz, Loeb and Colin McRae sweeping the podium spots. Don’t expect much to change this season. Loeb is Tommi Makinen’s heir as the master of this event, and Loeb should start his season with third consecutive win in Monte (it could be four, but he was given a time penalty in 2002 and lost to Makinen). This event has never been kind to Peugeot or Subaru, but Solberg at least needs to score points to get his season off to the right start.

Monte Carlo is always a bit of a crapshoot, with variable weather conditions, and the chance for rain or snow in the mountains. Loeb seems to have mastered the rally already. Solberg should have a better finish this year, due to more experience and a more mature driving strategy. Markko Martin should be a favorite, but he’s not had much good luck at the Monte in the past.

My Top 3
1. Sebastien Loeb
2. Carlos Sainz
3. Petter Solberg

Posted on 17 January 2004