After only ten days break, the factory teams will be at again in Sweden this week. The rally has been moved further north in hopes of having consistent snowpack on the roads — conditions have been variable over the past few years, with loads of ice and frozen gravel instead of the usual snowy bobsled runs. This is another specialist event, as only Swedes and Finns have won the rally since it’s inception in the 50s. It’s also a quick rally, posting the second fastest average speed, just behind the grand prix that is Rallye Finland. Good drivers know how to use the snowbanks to keep speed through the corners, but any lack of concentration will leave you beached in four feet of snow.

The favorite going into the event is Marcus Gronholm. He’s won in Sweden multiple times, and the new 307 was quick in Monte Carlo, so it should be quick in Sweden. A win this weekend would really kickstart Gronholm’s title campaign this season, especially with a string of gravel events coming up. Freddy Loix should also be fighting for a spot in points for Peugeot as well.

Citroen has a good chance of sweeping podium spots on this rally. Carlos Sainz, though he’s never won, can be counted on for a point performance, especially after a disappointing retirement in Monte Carlo. Sebastien Loeb has admitted that this isn’t his best event, but he set several scratch times last year, so he can be quick on the snow. He’ll be competing for a podium spot for sure.

Subaru will be a great unknown quantity in this event. Petter Solberg, despite growing up just over the border in Norway, doesn’t have much experience on snow. Teammate Mikko Hirvonen has more experience, and can be counted on to fight for a finish in the points. Both drivers will be aided by Tommi Makinen, who has stayed on at Subaru as a “coach” for the young drivers. Solberg will no doubt drive all out this weekend in hopes of starting a defence of his title.

The Ford drivers will also be dangerous this weekend. Markko Martin hopes to build on his fourth place finish last season, and Francois Duval seems to have matured since last season with his fine drive in Monte Carlo. The Focus is fast enough to win here, and I think Martin will fight Gronholm for the win.

Despite the fine performance in Monte Carlo, Mitsubishi can’t expect much in Sweden. Gilles Panizzi is far from comfortable on snow, and the new Lancer has had little loose surface testing. If the car runs as well as it did at the Monte, second driver Kristian Sohlberg has a shot at the points. I think, however, that Mitsubishi is just waiting for Sweden to end so they can better prepare for Mexico in March.

My Top 8
1. Marcus Gronholm
2. Markko Martin
3. Sebastien Loeb
4. Petter Solberg
5. Carlos Sainz
6. Freddy Loix
7. Mikko Hirvonen
8. Kristian Sohlberg

Posted on 3 February 2004